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You can beat the performance of professional fund managers by avoiding usage of old knowledgeIt is interesting to know that professionals very seldom beat the performance of stock indexes:
How come? Is it hard to do better? What can you do differently to succeed where they do not? The indexes are not hard to beatThe stock indexes are not some kind of magical cleverly thought out index that defines a performance that is hard to beat. The stock indexes are normally just built up of a number of stocks selected by extremely simple rules. For example:
Indexes could be built in many other ways, for example based on price per earnings, price compared to revenue, relative performance last quarter, stocks favored by the current market cycle, ... Many such indexes could easily be built to give a performance that is better than the more standard index type, so the index is not hard to beat. Fund managers do poorly in spite of a lot of knowledgeIf we know that fund managers on average are doing poorly compared to simple indexes, we need to understand why. Are they having difficulties that you will not have? Are they lacking knowledge that you will have?
The route to success is to ignore old knowledge when you actLet us ignore the above fact that the fund managers have a disadvantage of size that you probably will not have. Let us instead focus on market knowledge as the main reason you can succeed better than professional fund managers. You are as stated above likely to know less of the market than the professionals. This is the advantage you have, and it is this advantage you need to build on to succeed. Either by keeping your market knowledge low (hard to do if you trade frequently), or by learning to ignore old knowledge of the market that is endangering your trading skills. Old knowledge is a burden that hampers your performance. Also keeping the outside pressure on your selections low is a possible key to trading better, depending on what type of personality you have. To avoid losing money by inadvertently second-guessing your trading system, you need to know that it is a sound system, fitting your personality, and that you trust the signals from your trading strategy. |